Impact of Large-Scale New Energy Grid Connection on China Energy and Power Structure Analysis Model

Abstract

Developing new energy is an important way to optimize energy structure, which makes significant sense on improving energy efficiency, reducing carbon emission, and lowering external dependence degree. New energy power generation costs are generally higher than conventional ones at this time. They would quickly decrease because of their scale effects, as technology improving and the scale expanding. Referring to the developing trend of new energy power generation costs, this paper sets the minimize generation costs and pollutant emission as optimization objectives, selects primary energy consumption and new installed generation capacity of each year as decision variables, and establishes an optimization model for new energy and energy structure. By setting and calculating the optimal energy structure, new energy developing scale, generation capacity and building sequences, we can get comparative results of power generation costs under three different scenarios, namely reference scenario, energy security scenario and low-carbon scenario. And use a sensitive analysis to clear the effect of total energy consumption and non-fossil energy consumption proportion. A simulation result shows resource and environmental benefits would be greater than new energy exploration and utilization costs. The larger scale, greater benefits and the less operation cost of the energy system as well as the lower external dependence degree will occur. Therefore, China should adhere to low-carbon energy structure developing direction, to improve energy conversion and utilization efficiency, to strengthen investment in new energy and finally achieve energy development strategies and goals.