Unravelling the Dynamics of Macroeconomic Variables and Infant Mortality in India Based on ARDL Model Analysis

Abstract

The well-being of mothers and children serves as a vital indicator of a nation’s prosperity and is influenced by a range of factors, including macroeconomic variables such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), unemployment, inflation, income, education, and healthcare expenditure. Escalating inflation precipitates higher food prices, amplifies household living costs, and diminishes purchasing power, consequently exerting a substantial impact on individuals’ nutritional and physical health. This study aims to examine the correlation between macroeconomic variables, specifically GDP per capita, Consumer Price Index (CPI), unemployment, and infant mortality in the Indian context. Despite the significance of this relationship, there exists a dearth of research on the association between macroeconomic variables and maternal and child mortality, particularly within the Indian context. Prior studies consistently underscore the indispensability of macroeconomic stability in achieving improved outcomes in maternal and child health. The analysis draws upon secondary data procured from reputable sources such as the World Bank and Reserve Bank of India (RBI), encompassing time series data about both the dependent variable, namely the infant mortality rate, and the explanatory variables. To investigate the impact of macroeconomic variables on infant mortality, the study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Error Correction Model, which accounts for the interplay between the variables over time. Empirical findings establish the existence of long-term cointegration between macroeconomic variables and the infant mortality rate. However, in the short run, some variability in cointegration arises due to a multitude of factors, including policy interventions, demographic characteristics, and socio-cultural determinants. This study substantiates the proposition that sustaining macroeconomic stability and fostering economic growth play pivotal roles in attaining health sector objectives, particularly in emerging economies like India. Consequently, while formulating health policies, equal emphasis must be placed on measures aimed at stabilizing the economy to ensure favourable outcomes of such policies.